Prospect Evaluation and Risk & Volume Assessment

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    About Course leader

    Jan de Jager draws on more than 30 years of experience as exploration geologist. Since early 2011 he is Professor Regional and Petroleum Geology at the VU University of Amsterdam (the Netherlands). Prior to his appointment he was with Shell International where he held a variety of positions as senior exploration advisor.  In addition, as Shell's global Principle Technical Expert for Risk & Volu...

     

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    Participants

    Course Overview:  

    A decision to drill an exploration well with the objective to find a new oil or gas field must be based on a sound assessment of the prospect's risks and of the volumes: what is the chance that a well will find hydrocarbons, and how much could it be?

    Risk and volume assessments form the basis for decisions to drill a well or not, and as such it is the link between subsurface evaluation and the business aspects of the petroleum industry. 

    This course explains how risks and volumes can be assessed in a realistic manner, based on a sound understanding of the geological details of the prospect as well as of its regional geological setting and our play understanding.

    The course will focus in detail on:

    • The statistical fundamentals for risk and volume assessment will be presented, with practical exercises for understanding the results of a risk & volume assessment displayed in expectation curves.
    • The difference between risk and uncertainty.
    • A discussion of the essential requirements for a working petroleum system: trap, reservoir, seal and charge.
    • Exercises in and guidelines for estimating uncertainties for prospect parameters, including practical advice for meaningful distributions for uncertainty ranges. Particular emphasis will be given to estimating hydrocarbon column lengths with their associated uncertainties in undrilled prospects.
    • Prospects and plays; the value of play maps and how these should be used for assessment of prospect risks and for ranking of prospects within a play.
    • Calculating volume ranges for prospects.
    • Calculating volumes for groups of prospects; how to add risked prospect volumes for a statistically correct representation of the volume promise of a portfolio of prospects.
    • Geophysical evidence: incorporating geophysical evidence (DHIs) consistently and realistically in a risk assessment. An understandable and geology-based workflow, consistent with Bayes theorem, will be presented.

    At the end of the course the participants will have a good understanding of the essentials for a realistic risk and volume assessment of exploration prospects.  Participants will be equipped to independently carry out meaningful and realistic risk and volume assessments for prospects they are working on, and to productively participate in review sessions for prospect assessments carried out by others. They should also be able to critically assess risk and volume assessments presented to them in data room settings, and to quickly identify any flaws.

    Each topic is introduced by a lecture, and learning is re-enforced by practical exercises. There is time for discussions of general issues and any specific questions participants may have. Comprehensive hand-out material in paper and/or electronic format will be provided. On request, special emphasis can be given to the local geological setting. 

    Who is it for?

    This course is designed in the firsts place for geoscientists working in exploration and their direct supervisors. The course is also very instructive for staff from other disciplines working closely with exploration staff, such as reservoir engineers, petrophysicists and prospect portfolio analysts.

    Workshop Level:

    Senior Staff
    Senior geoscientists and supervisers in exploration technical disciplines

    What will I be able to do after participating?

    • Translate geological understanding of prospects and hydrocarbon plays into realistic numbers and ranges for calculating the probability of Success (POS) and volume ranges of undrilled prospects
    • Confidently determine which uncertainty distributions to use for volumetric input parameters
    • Appreciate the volume promise and related uncertainties of undrilled prospects from expectation curves and frequency plots (probability density functions)
    • Understand how to communicate prospect volumes, and when zero- or commercial cut-off volumes should be used
    • Understand the impact of dependencies between prospects and know how to add prospect volumes statistically correct for a realistic volume promise of a portfolio of prospects
    • Determine a realistic final POS for prospects with direct hydrocarbon indicators and/or controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) anomalies